India Lok Sabha Elections 2024 Throws up some Surprises

With the final counts amost in, it seems that the NDA has gained a majority with 296 seats in the bag. 

The INDIA although predicted to underperform by most exit polls, has defied expectations with 230 seats.

What is more noteworthy is that the BJP has failed to gain a singular majority although with 240 seats in its tally, it is the single largest party in the Lok Sabha, by a fair distance.

The Indian National Congress has staged a comeback however with 99 seats, up by 47 seats from the last election. This is still a far cry from the Grand Old Parties all time record of 426 seats in the 8th Lok Sabha under Rajiv Gandhi.

The Prime Ministor Narendra Modi has called it a historic victory for his party and alliance, but it is clear that the BJP has been weakened and now that is apparent to all of India. Not only did the BJP fail to reach its target, its stronghold bastions such as Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan have swung to SP and INC suggested there is now a disparate divide between voters and the BJPs politics.

The 'Maha-Decline' has been even more telling. Key seats like Mumbai South and Mumbai South Central have voted for the INDI Alliance and significantly against the BJP led 'Mahayuti' alliance. Overall the INDI Alliance garnered 29 seats in the state compared to the NDAs 18. This is especially crucial as the next election will be the Maharashtra state election sometime before November this year. 

However, BJP has managed to dominate in states like Odisha, and has gained ground in both Karnataka and West Bengal. An opening seat in Kerala and Tamil Nadu could also signify a growing appreciation for the Party in Southern India, which has till now been complete blanks for Modi and Co. 

The 'Home Turf' states of MP and Gujarat have resoundingly voted for the 'Lotus' with all 29 seats in Madhya Pradesh going to the BJP, and Indore Seat being won by a record number of votes (it is notable that the INC candidate withdrew and the second place was NOTA - None of the Above, with over 200,000 votes representing almost 15% of the votes). There was the single seat for the INC in Gujarat, but the remaining 25 strongly voted for the ruling party, including Amit Shah winning by a massive margin in his home seat of Gandhinagar.

Overall the picture is more clear, there is appreciation for the good work done by Narendra Modi's BJP but the Opposition alliance has shown its mettle. 

NDA Alliance members JDU and TDP could hold the key to the formation of the next government and it would mean an array of changes across the central governance, dealing with states and down to the cabinet portfolio assignments. But a coalition is not necessarily a bad thing, and this could be a very good chance for a Developed and better educated India to gravitate towards more progressive and modern politics.

There will be a keen focus on the political events of the coming 48 hours as there could be some more surprises.